Market Notes: What JPMorgan's, Goldman's, ASML's and TSMC's Earnings Told Long-Term Investors

Four widely followed companies reported last week: two large U.S. banks and two semiconductor companies. Their reports are useful case studies in how to read quarterly results, including the parts that do not fit a tidy story. None of this is a recommendation (see the disclosures below).

What did the big banks' results show?

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) reported on Tuesday, October 13. Net income was $15.3 billion, or $5.57 per share, versus $14.4 billion, or $5.07, a year earlier (SEC Form 8-K). Reported net revenue was $50.2 billion, up 8%, while noninterest expense rose 12% to $27.3 billion. The provision for credit losses was $2.7 billion, down from $3.4 billion (JPMorgan financial supplement). Within markets, equities revenue rose 49% and fixed income fell 4% (JPMorgan earnings release). The estimated standardized CET1 capital ratio was 13.9%, versus 14.8% a year earlier (supplement).

On the earnings call, CFO Jeremy Barnum said "the consumer is currently very healthy," while Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon said "some of the credit terms have got a little bit loose" and, asked where the firm is pulling back, that "we are tightening up a little bit credit." Discussing the firm's 2027 central case for net interest income excluding markets, he said "there is more uncertainty around that number than normal."

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), which also reported October 13, posted net revenues of $18.68 billion, up 23%, and diluted earnings of $17.01 per share versus $12.25. Equities revenue rose 72% to $6.44 billion, while fixed income was about flat (down 1%) at $3.47 billion. Advisory revenue was $1.65 billion, up 18%; the provision for credit losses was $368 million; and the standardized CET1 ratio was 12.4%, down from 12.9% in the second quarter (Goldman Sachs results, SEC filing).

Management on the call was measured. Chairman and CEO David Solomon described the capital-markets backdrop as "a top quartile environment," and noted that "a handful of IPOs" did not move forward and that "things got a little bit softer in September." On artificial intelligence, he said "no one knows how the demands for capital and compute will evolve."

Why do the two banks look so different?

Equities revenue rose sharply at both banks, while fixed income revenue was down 4% at JPMorgan and essentially unchanged at Goldman. The difference is in the details: JPMorgan's expenses grew faster than its revenue this quarter (12% versus 8%), while Goldman's revenue growth was led by equities trading and advisory, lines that tend to move with market activity. Both managements flagged uncertainty in specific areas, and strong quarters in activity-driven lines are not the same as durable earnings power.

What did ASML report?

ASML (Nasdaq: ASML), a semiconductor equipment maker, reported on Wednesday, October 14. Total net sales were €11.66 billion, gross margin was 57.5%, and net income was €4.96 billion, or €12.95 per share. For the fourth quarter, ASML guided to net sales of €14.2 to €15.2 billion at a gross margin of around 57%, and to 2026 net sales of €44 to €45 billion (ASML 6-K).

On the call, CFO Roger Dassen said planned 2027 and 2028 output "will not fully meet the demand of our customers," and CEO Christophe Fouquet said customers are expressing interest in orders for 2029 and 2030. Dassen added that ASML has not yet accepted those orders, and tied the roughly 57% fourth-quarter margin guidance to "some ramp costs." The call also pointed to a customer-side risk: Dassen said customers "have to manage the execution of all the construction in 2027-2028 very diligently."

What did TSMC report?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM), a semiconductor manufacturer, reported on Thursday, October 15. Third-quarter revenue was US$46.72 billion, gross margin 66.4%, operating margin 58.7%, and earnings per share NT$29.43. For the fourth quarter it guided to revenue of US$52.3 to $54.3 billion and a gross margin of 65% to 67% (TSMC 6-K).

On the call, asked about AI accelerator demand, Chairman and CEO C.C. Wei said "We did not see any sign of slowdown." He was more cautious on consumer and price-sensitive segments, saying they "are being challenged" by rising component prices and macroeconomic uncertainties, and that TSMC is "being prudent" in planning for 2027. CFO Wendell Huang said capital spending for 2026 through 2028 would be "even more significantly higher than the past three years," and that the margin dilution from overseas fabs is expected to widen to 3% to 4% in the next few years.

What can long-term investors take from these reports?

First, strong demand and heavy investment arrive together. Both chip companies described strong demand alongside the costs of expanding capacity: ramp costs at ASML, and higher capital spending and overseas-fab margin dilution at TSMC. Second, concentration of strength matters. TSMC's demand commentary centered on AI accelerators, and Goldman's CEO said "no one knows how the demands for capital and compute will evolve" as the AI ecosystem matures. Third, one quarter is one data point. A diversified portfolio, sensible costs and a plan matched to your own goals are what carry investors through quarters like these, good and bad.

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