Market Notes: What SpaceX, AMD, Palantir, and Lilly's Earnings Told Long-Term Investors

The first week of August brought the most anticipated debut of the Q2 2026 reporting season: SpaceX (Nasdaq: SPCX) reported for the first time as a public company. Alongside it came AMD (Nasdaq: AMD), Palantir (Nasdaq: PLTR), and Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY). We cover these because their results say something about the economy and the AI build-out — not because they are recommendations (see the disclosures below). The through-line this week: growth alone did not determine how the market responded. Cash did.

What did SpaceX's first public quarter actually show?

Rapid growth funded by extraordinary spending. Revenue rose 92% to $7.8 billion, net loss narrowed to $541 million from $1.0 billion, and adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion. Starlink subscribers doubled year over year to 12.0 million, though monthly ARPU fell to $66 from $85, and the AI segment grew 247% to $2.6 billion (SpaceX Q2 2026 results). Then the figure that moved the stock: capital expenditures of $18.4 billion in the quarter — more than twice quarterly revenue, versus $2.8 billion a year earlier — with $15.8 billion in AI, and $28.5 billion for the first half. The first-half net loss was $4.8 billion, well above the quarterly figure, and included nearly $2.0 billion of net other expense.

On the call, CFO Bret Johnsen argued that "all CapEx is not the same," and told analysts to expect the next two quarters to look similar to this one on spending; CEO Elon Musk said internal projections for reaching $1 trillion in revenue moved up from 2031 to 2030 (earnings call transcript). Investors were unconvinced: shares fell 13.6% in the next session (CNBC).

Why did AMD's record quarter get sold?

AMD posted record revenue of $11.5 billion, up 50%, with data center revenue up 107% to $6.7 billion — now 58% of the company. GAAP earnings were $1.38 per share ($1.66 non-GAAP), and third-quarter guidance calls for roughly $13 billion, about 41% growth (AMD press release). Not everything grew: gaming revenue fell 31% to $779 million, operating expenses rose 40%, and management said it is planning for a softer PC market in the second half as higher memory and component costs weigh on demand (earnings call transcript). CEO Lisa Su framed the moment as "still in the early stages of a multi-year AI adoption cycle." The stock nonetheless closed 7% lower the following day (CNBC).

What made Palantir the week's biggest mover?

Revenue grew 93% to $1.935 billion, U.S. commercial revenue rose 149% to $764 million, GAAP net income was $1.062 billion, and adjusted free cash flow reached $1.22 billion. Full-year revenue guidance was raised to a midpoint of $8.154 billion, an 82% growth rate and the company's largest raise to date (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1). The stock rose 29.5% on Tuesday — though the shares had entered the day down 29% for 2026, so the move largely erased a year-to-date loss rather than adding to a gain (CNBC). The balancing items are in the fine print: adjusted expenses rose 37% year over year, adjusted gross margin reflected higher cloud hosting costs taken on for one government customer, the CFO guided to a significant expense ramp in the third quarter, and 81% of revenue came from the U.S. (earnings call transcript). CEO Alex Karp told investors he is driving the business to grow at a rate equal to or above its U.S. commercial rate for the next 18 months — an unusually high bar to set publicly.

What did Lilly's numbers say about price versus volume?

Revenue rose 48% to $23.0 billion, but the composition matters: volume grew 60% while realized prices fell 13%. Mounjaro revenue rose 91% to $9.9 billion and U.S. Zepbound rose 44% to $4.9 billion. Reported earnings were $7.94 per share and non-GAAP $8.38 — both including $3.03 of acquired in-process R&D charges. Full-year revenue guidance went to $85–87 billion; EPS guidance of $35.50–$36.50 reflects $2.78 of underlying improvement more than offset by that $3.03 charge (Lilly Form 8-K). U.S. realized prices declined 3% — roughly 9% excluding adjustments to rebate and discount estimates — and prices outside the U.S. fell 36%, driven largely by adding Mounjaro to China's national reimbursement list. On the call, CFO Lucas Montarce told analysts that the pre-period rebate and discount adjustments that helped the quarter are not expected to continue into the second half of the year (earnings call transcript). Shares rose about 4% in Wednesday morning trading (CNBC).

The bottom line for long-term investors

SpaceX grew 92% and its stock fell; Palantir grew 93% and its stock rose sharply. The headline growth rates were nearly identical; the cash flows were not. Palantir produced $1.22 billion of free cash flow on $1.9 billion of revenue, while SpaceX spent $18.4 billion on capital projects against $7.8 billion of revenue. AMD beat and still declined, because expectations had already moved. Lilly's reported earnings understated the business while its price line quietly flagged pressure.

A note worth highlighting: The useful discipline is not predicting which way a stock jumps on earnings day. It is reading past the growth headline — to the cash flow, the one-time charges, and the split between volume and price — and treating a single quarter as information rather than instruction.

---

This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Consult your financial advisor about your specific situation. Companies mentioned are discussed for educational purposes only; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Disclosure: One or more of the securities discussed may be held in client accounts managed by VCP Financial. Holdings differ from client to client based on each client's individual objectives and circumstances, are not held by all clients, and are subject to change at any time without notice. The mention of any specific security is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that security, and should not be assumed to be profitable.